Sean Sez: A new segment on A-Train Finance written by none other than Mr. Sean Sullivan. Enjoy.
‘Bailout Bill Defeat Could Cause Painful Recession’, ‘Bush Says Congress Must Act on Bank Rescue or Face `Painful’ Consequences’, ‘Congress Bailout Vote Causes 780 point freefall.’
These are the headlines that I am greeted with when I open up various financial news sites. These headlines seem to be trying to instill fear into me, fear that if we as a nation don’t act now by bailing out large multinational corporations that we will be entering into a new Great Depression.
This couldn’t be farther from the truth. The truth of the matter is that what you are seeing today is simply capitalism at work. If you read the texts of those that first wrote of how a successful capitalist society should work they never claimed that it would allow for the everybody to be comfortable and safe all the time. In fact it promised quite the opposite, much like Darwin it promised that the strong would prevail and the weak would fail. Lehman was weak, Wamu was weak, Bear was weak, these institutions failed because they chose not to follow advice that is given in any investing 101 course, diversify, which in turn made them weak institutions prone to failure. In the long run we will be much better off without these institutions which had poor leadership and weak business models.
Now that Congress has finally done a sensible thing and rejected a bill that would simply hand over 700 billion dollars to corporations it should continue down this path of sensibility and undo the mistakes of the past. Close down Freddie and Fannie, or at least restructure them to only allow for lending to above average credit risks, yes it is the American dream for everybody to own their own home, but it simply shouldn’t be that easy. If you haven’t proven yourself to be worthy of a loan you shouldn’t get one, especially not one that is partially back by the government. Americans may not end up owning their own home at the age of 24 and they won’t be able to afford the latest and greatest consumables but they will be better off financially in the long run as they really couldn’t afford these things in the first place. We were simply financing ourselves into a future of financial burden and worry. Who knows we may actually end up happier without all the “stuff”.
This isn’t just about restricting loans to those who actually qualify. The financial system right now is broken and needs to be fixed by government action, just not a government bailout. What the government must do now is to make a bold statement by saying that there will be absolutely no bailout what so ever of these corporations. Yes, this will cause a temporary decline in the stock market, maybe even another one day loss of 500 or 600 points, but as a savvy investor you should know that would be the day to buy in and that it will recover.
Once the government finally puts an end to talks of a bailout the healing can begin, financial corporations can unload the toxic assets they have for .20 or .30 cents on the dollar as opposed to holding on to them in the hopes that the government will pay .80 cents on the dollar for them. Right now nobody will sell their assets if there is a chance they can get more for them from the government, hence we have a credit freeze.
To further open the door to responsible leading the fed should then lower the interest rates by a full percentage point. Simply put once financial institutes can get rid of their toxic assets instead of holding on to them waiting for a bailout and then these banks can borrow money at 1% from the fed. The strong, well managed banks will see the giant profits that can be made and credit markets will open back up, in capitalism the driving force is always that if a buck is there to be made somebody will be there to make it. If the fed does a good job of controlling the interest rates on the way back up we should see recovery, not right away of course, but in due time we will all be laughing at how we almost gave a blank check to financial corporations.
The other option is to bail these corporations out and add to our already ridiculous deficient while showing corporations that it is OK to make mistakes because Uncle Sam will come to your rescue if you mess up your risk evaluation. This will only encourage risky behavior keeping weak corporations alive while further eroding America’s image as a democratic capitalist society. We simply cannot go down this path of socialism, this mindset is what got us to where we are today and that will only prolong the problem as and it will pop back up several years down the line possibly even worse than it is this time.
The fact is that the government made mistakes in promoting sub prime lending through legislation, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Some corporations made mistakes in following the governments lead, mistakes that for a while made giant profits for these companies, mistakes that were destined to bring these corporations to their demise. These corporations, stocked with the best Harvard MBAs, should have known better. Now somebody has to pay for the mess, and true to the capitalist system our government is based on, that somebody should be the corporations and not the tax payer.